Five Minutes, Five Minutes!

For those not familiar with it, there is a very strange and seemingly unlikely trend with regards to goal scoring in soccer.  Simply put, a disproportionate amount of goals are scored within 5 minutes of each other or within 5 minutes of the start or end of a half.  While this is not scientifically proven, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence to support it, some non-scientific studies, and it is generally accepted as true.

How is this possible?

It is impossible to know why this phenomenon exists, but the most likely reasons are focus, fatigue, and game psychology.  

Focus

Focus at the start of the game and half is a likely culprit.  Players are generally nervous to start the game or coming out of the half.  The start of the half or game is a period of time where teams are trying to figure things.  There are a lot of external stimuli for players and a lot on the minds of the players during this time as they try to determine what the other team is all about.  This goes both ways, both teams are vulnerable. The team that understands the phenomenon will be better prepared to exploit it. It is at these moments that set plays, passing patterns and individual efforts can have a large impact. Teams must be ready to play when the half starts, not much more to say there.

Fatigue

Fatigue at the end of halves makes complete sense.  Players have been on the field for a long time and often they can see the finish line, the tank is almost empty and those last few runs may have done them in.  Perhaps the team defense that has been working so well for the majority of the half breaks down because one player is out of position and not hustling, leading to a goal.  Or the coach, sensing the fatigue makes a substitution, leading to a less capable player on the field and the goal.

Psychology

If you think about it this makes complete sense for the start and end period of halves. But, why are goals scored in bunches at other times?  There are three general thoughts about these bunches of goals.  

• The team that just scored has found something to exploit and before the team that was scored on can shore it up, the scoring team is able to score another goal;
• The team that was scored on, now plays with a sense of urgency and fire, working very hard to get the goal back and really presses the other team to equalize the scoring;
• The team that scored now has a lot of energy and the team that got scored on now feels a sense of despair, allowing in another goal because they have lost faith in the system or are just trying too hard to get the goal back, which actually leads to another mistake.

The end of the half and game also create a sense of urgency to score.  Teams start to do things a little differently and those changes often lead to opportunities to score. That rush against the clock makes for some very exciting soccer!

The studies

This one is very anecdotal and has some interesting math in it, but worth the read.  A champions league study  and one with the Houston Dynamo look at a few specific instances that seem to indicate that the theory holds.  In Dan Blank’s legendary book, Soccer IQ, he mentions this phenomena and it is widely accepted as true, but maybe it is just a self fulfilling prophecy.  

Now when you see those teams yelling “5 Minutes” – “5 Minutes” after a goal is scored, you know why!

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